1. Texas Rangers
Picking the Texas Rangers is kind of like eating sushi from a convenience store — there’s a good chance it won’t turn out so bad, but you’ll probably end up regretting it later. Still, this Rangers team is a safe bet to win the West, a division that seems to be more even from top to bottom (okay … second from the bottom), if not a little weaker. But the Rangers still have a lot of question marks as they enter the season.
For starters (pun intended), mega-ace Yu Darvish will start the season on the disabled list, and Ron Washington has named Tanner Scheppers as the Opening Day starter. You know Scheppers … the guy who has exactly zero starts in the Majors (and eight in the minors!). While he has an ERA of 2.64 over two seasons in the bigs, his FIP of 4.02 hints at something more concerning. Not that Darvish is the only worry. Derek Holland is on the DL as well. This means the projected starters for the Rangers includes Robbie Ross and … uh oh … Joe Saunders.
On the bright side, the Rangers’ lineup is a cavalcade of current and future All-Stars. Texas added Shin-Soo Choo, and he’ll man left field and provide a spark on the basepaths. He’s perfect to hit in front of Adrian Beltre and recently-acquired Prince Fielder. And of course, there’s Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar (currently shelved until May or June-ish) and Leonys Martin. So this team won’t hurt for scoring runs, which should help a particularly weak rotation.
As long as the health issues with Darvish are minimal, this team should be just fine, and they should be primed for a return to the postseason.
2. Oakland Athletics
Please understand that I write the next sentence with all of the kindness and love I can: How in the world are the Athletics this good? They won the AL West last year by 5.5 games, and yet they have virtually nobody on this team who is a household name. If I were to tell you that second baseman Eric Sogard nearly won MLB’s “Face of MLB” contest, you’d say “Who?” and go on about your morning latte.
But the Athletics are a very talented team, and credit goes once again to Billy Beane for building this roster. And this is going to be a very good team again this season, but I don’t expect they have enough to win the division.
They are a good offensive group, led by Yoenis Cespedes, who is probably the most recognizable member of the green-and-gold. First baseman Brandon Moss provides a lot of pop, and the pair of Joshes (Donaldson and Reddick) are getting increasingly better. And Jed Lowrie will also provide a nice bat at shortstop, which will hopefully overcome that negative UZR rating in the field.
This team is especially interesting on the mound, where Sonny Gray will open the season for the A’s. Gray, along with Dan Straily, are just two more outstanding pitching prospects that have come up through the organization with immediate success. They will be joined by Scott Kazmir, who will likely turn his first season in Oakland into a great comeback year.
This Oakland team is definitely a playoff team. It’s just that they’ll have to get there via the Wild Card. But they are certainly good enough to make that happen.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Seems like no matter what the Angels do, they just cannot catch up with their division mates. This team is very well-rounded offensively, but concerns about the pitching staff have me expecting not much better than third for the Halos.
When you have a lineup featuring Mike Trout, you can’t really go wrong (especially now that he’s re-upped with the team for six years on a way-too-team-friendly contract). Not to mention that this lineup still has Josh Hamilton, although his bat hasn’t played well in the past couple of seasons and neither has his health. This lineup also features former Cardinal great Albert Pujols (ditto). The Angels shored up third base by trading for David Freese, and Howie Kendrick provides a stable threat at second.
And one of the real stories of this team may be rightfielder Kole Calhoun. He’s highly-touted, and he might be one of the best young players to take the field for the Angels this season. And they have J.B. Shuck, who has my second-favorite baseball name (you’re safe for now, Hiram Bocachica.)
But that rotation … well … that might be a different story. Jared Weaver ain’t as good as he once was, and C.J. Wilson might be forced to become the ace of this team. To me, the real story on the mound will be Tyler Skaggs, who came over from the Diamondbacks in the trade that sent Mark Trumbo to the National League. Skaggs is considered a great young pitcher, but in 13 starts for the Snakes in 2012 and 2013, he was … ahem … bad. Like ERA over 5, walk rates touching four percent bad. So if he can figure something out for this team, they will be much better off.
I think the Angels are close. But in a division where the Rangers and the A’s keep getting better, this team needs to fire on all cylinders to compete.
4. Seattle Mariners
Well, Jack Zduriencik … at least Jay Z likes you! Poor Jack hasn’t had a great offseason personally, with attacks from major media questioning his ethics, and now Randy Wolf is saying things about him, and Randy Wolf seems like the kind of guy who would like anybody.
But Jack Z and the Mariners are trying to make a splash in this AL West, dang it, and if that means he has to go to great lengths to woo Robinson Cano to the Pacific Northwest, then gosh darn it that’s what he’s going to do. And did he ever.
The problem is this — who is going to hit in that lineup besides Cano? Well, maybe third baseman Kyle Seager, a young talent touted highly by the M’s?.Justin Smoak? Maybe. Dustin Ackley or Michael Saunders? Probably not. Kendry(s) Morales? Hasn’t signed. New DH Corey Hart? He’s too busy wearing his sunglasses at night! (I’m sorry. I really am.)
But unlike most teams in the West, this Mariners team has some fantastic pitching. It starts, of course, with King Felix Hernandez, who seems to make a Cy Young run every year despite pitching for such a bad team. Hisashi Iwakuma had a great start to 2013, and while he’ll open on the DL, he should be the team’s number two. Taijuan Walker will also start on the DL, but his upside makes him an appealing option in that rotation. The biggest concern for the Mariners is closer Fernando Rodney. If the Mariners somehow get a lead, it’s not guaranteed they’ll keep in in the ninth. Rodney may have Mariners’ fans longing for the return of Brandon League (no, seriously … please take him back. Please.)
5. Houston Astros
I like the Astros. I like the Astros like someone likes his Aunt Lindy, who he only sees at family reunions, but always knows there will be a hug, a weird kiss on the cheek, and probably extended swings during square dances. That is, I tolerate the Astros.
But I think general manager Jeff Luhnow has them headed in the right direction, and I think Bo Porter is the right man for the job. But this team is so young and so inexperienced that they still have a ways to go before they can compete.
This will be an improved team, no question. Dexter Fowler is a great guy to have, and his speed could make a difference not just on the basepaths but up the hill in centerfield. He and Jose Altuve at the top of the lineup will benefit Chris Carter and Jason Castro, who should surely benefit from another year’s experience. Scott Feldman is a veteran leader in that clubhouse who will help the rotation and be a stabilizing presence. And the bullpen, with Jesse Crain (starting the season on the DL) and closer Chad Qualls, has to be a highlight for those moments when the Astros get a lead.
But this is a team who only won 51 games last year and finished 45 games out of the lead in this division. You have to think they’ll be better, but can they have really progressed that much? There are a lot of question marks offensively for this team, and I would have loved to have seen them go out and get a great hitter. Maybe Chris Carter can be that guy for them, but not this year.
I think Houston is close to getting somewhere, but not in 2014.
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