1. San Francisco Giants
Yes, I’m serious. I cannot believe that the Giants will be the same team they were last year. Not when Matt Cain had arguably his worst season since 2006, his first full season in the bigs. Not when that vaunted pitching staff posted the fourth-lowest WAR in the majors. Not when the offense finished eighth in the league in WAR while landing in the bottom third in runs, home runs and runs batted in.
So let’s be clear — this isn’t a crazy good team. But they are a good team that should be better than they were last season. For all the talk about Yadier Molina, Buster Posey still seems underrated at the catcher’s spot. Hunter Pence made it through a season without being traded, and his numbers (and crazy eyes) should be most similar to his 2013 stats. Pablo Sandoval will likely Juan Uribe his way through his walk year by posting good numbers and looking svelte doing it. And Michael Morse was brought in to hit home runs (and not much else), perhaps boosting the poor run-scoring numbers.
But if the Giants are going to contend, it will be due to the pitching staff. Madison Bumgarner has usurped Cain’s role as ace of this squad, but Cain seems primed for a bounce-back season. Cain, along with Tim Lincecum, are not the pitchers they were in 2011 and 2012, but they are better than the showing they posted last season. And the Giants’ signing of Tim Hudson may prove to be one of the better free-agent signings of the season.
Add it all up, and consider some of the issues facing the other NL West teams (as you’ll see shortly), I think the San Francisco Giants — barely — win the pennant.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
There are two very dangerous and problematic words the Dodgers face in 2014: “on paper.”
“The Dodgers are the best team in the National League … on paper.” “The Dodgers have enough talent to win the World Series … on paper.” “The Dodgers could win the World Cup of soccer … on paper.”
But games are not won on paper. They are won by mustachioed general managers in stadium back offices passing out three-year deals to veteran relievers (I’m looking at you, Mr. Colletti). And while there is a lot to like about the Dodgers, they have some important flaws from 2013 that were never addressed.
They needed to upgrade second base. But they chose not to re-sign Mark Ellis and picked up Alex Guerrero, who could likely start the season at Triple-A Albuquerque (opening the starting job at second to … Dee Gordon?) Their bench was weak, but they will probably open the season with Mike Baxter, Justin Turner and … yep … Chone Figgins.
The rotation may be a concern for the Dodgers as well. The front end might consist of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. But they round out the starters with Josh Beckett (coming off of season-ending thoracic nerve surgery in 2013), Dan Haren and Paul Maholm. There is plenty of reason to look forward to the return of Chad Billingsley in May or June.
Yes, Matt Kemp should be healthy, but he’s missed almost as many games in the past two years as he’s played in. Yes, Yasiel Puig has a cannon of an arm and a bat flip that won’t quit, but is he likely to post a .925 OPS, especially with a .383 BABIP. Yes, Hanley Ramirez might be better than ever, but he is battling injuries of his own, and his defense at shortstop is questionable.
So the Dodgers will probably clinch a wild card spot, but their unsolved issues from 2013 will likely keep them from winning a division they should run away with … on paper.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks nearly took the NL West last season before a late-season fade opened up the opportunity for the Dodgers to take over. So what should one expect from the Snakes this season?
As of the writing of this article, the D-Backs may have lost Patrick Corbin for the season due to “elbow ligament damage” (translation: Tommy John surgery). That opens a great opportunity for Wade Miley, who will likely open the season against the Dodgers in Australia, making him Kirk Gibson‘s go-to ace. Miley was decent if unspectacular, and will need to lower his FIP to lead the rotation. The same applies for free-agent Bronson Arroyo, who provides an innings-eater who keeps the ball on the ground almost half the time.
The bright spot for Arizona continues to be Paul Goldschmidt, an MVP candidate in 2013 who might wind up being one of the best first basemen in the game this season (thereby proving me and my stupid opinions wrong). But the team faces a steep drop from Goldschmidt, as the rest of the squad is made up of Martin Prado and Gerardo Parra and Miguel Montero. All are sufficient in their roles, but none will push this team to the level of winning the division. A.J. Pollock did enough last year to push Adam Eaton to the White Sox, and he’ll be an interesting player to watch this season.
All that being said, I don’t expect to see the same kind of success from the Diamondbacks this season, and losing Corbin will end up hurting them more than they realize.
4. Colorado Rockies
A little piece of me nearly predicted the Rockies to finish third in the NL West this season. The lineup will feature Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, of course. But they also include newcomers Justin Morneau and Drew Stubbs, another year of Michael Cuddyer and a sophomore season from Nolan Arenado. That’s … not a bad lineup.
So what could keep the Rockies mired near the bottom of the standings? Well, there’s the issue of keeping Tulo and CarGo on the field; neither player played more than 130 games last season due to injury. The starting rotation shows promise, but concerns over Jhoulys Chacin‘s arm this spring might bode poorly for him. Maybe Tyler Chatwood continues to impress, Rex Brothers takes over the closer role from LaTroy Hawkins and Brett Anderson stays healthy for a season and dominates in his role.
But there are a lot of maybes, and this is a team that seems to suffocate under a pile of maybes. One of these years, this team’s fortune has to come together to lead them to the top of the standings. I just don’t know that it will be this year, but the Rockies aren’t far away.
5. San Diego Padres
Even if you’re not a Padres fan, you can’t help but feel bad for the team for what they’ve already had to deal with this season. Cory Luebke is facing a second Tommy John surgery two years (and zero starts) removed from his last one. Chase Headley has already dealt with a strained calf which kept him out of spring games. Cameron Maybin might miss the first few games of the season after suffering a ruptured bicep (ow).
So the baseball life is not as beautiful as the sunny days of San Diego, but there may be rays of light shining through. Everth Cabrera posted strong numbers before his season ended due to injury. Will Venable could also provide an offensive threat, as his 22 home runs last season matched his stolen base totals. Jedd Gyorko provides pop at second base as well.
But the rotation … oh, the rotation. Andrew Cashner might be the next big thing, and San Diego is betting that Josh Johnson finally stays healthy and lives up to his potential. Ian Kennedy has been hit-and-miss during his years with the Yankees and Diamondbacks. Tyson Ross, however, might be a darkhorse for this staff — his 3-8 record misleads that impressive 3.17 ERA (and 3.20 FIP).
Still, I don’t believe the Padres have enough this season to contend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a midseason trade where San Diego gets a haul of prospects for Headley. It might be another step in a long rebuilding process.
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