Ryan Braun is worried about Bryan’s predictions.
A prediction is, by definition, an educated guess of an event one believes will take place in the foreseeable future. Similarly, a bold prediction believes said event will be unexpected and surprising.
But a fearless prediction? That’s the kind of prediction that nobody would even think to make, but can somehow be validated using logic and reasoning. And that’s the basis for my ten fearless predictions for the 2013 baseball season.
Feel free to follow me on the Twitter. I’m @losstangeles. That way, I can gloat when these things happen. But seriously, follow me on Twitter; I only have four followers, and three of them are StanGraphs-related. I’m talking to nobody out there!
1. Ryan Braun will serve a 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.
Do you remember the first time somebody accused Lance Armstrong of performance-enhancing drugs? We all shouted “No way! Lance wouldn’t do that! That’s just not possible!” But more and more people said it, and finally we all saw Lance on “Oprah” crying about his mistake. Moral of the story? Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
Compare this to Braun. Last year he was given a suspension for PEDs, but escaped serving it due to a technicality in how the sample was handled (and let’s face it, he got off on a technicality). Now his name has been tied to a doctor in Florida who allegedly provided multiple athletes with PEDs, including but not limited to Alex Rodriguez. MLB is trying to determine relevance, but Braun’s name is in the books as owing money.
We may not have a positive test now, but don’t forget the moral of the story: where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
2. The Blue Jays will finish second in the AL East.
The Best Team on Paper has really been the runaway choice for winning the substantially weaker AL East. And while I think their revamped rotation will pay dividends, it won’t happen this year. That’s because three of their new starters — the law firm of Dickey, Johnson and Buehrle — have traveled over from the NL East. Mark Buehrle at least has recent experience in the American League, but I’m curious to see if his AL know-how makes a difference. R.A. Dickey and Josh Johnson are unquestionably great pitchers, but I’m not sure they won’t get hit around in their first season on the “other side.” I don’t believe in the Blue Jays this year. The winner of the division? Let’s just get crazy here — it’s the Yankees.
3. The Cubs will finish third in the NL Central.
Those of you who know me well (both of you) will find this as a way to appease my Cub-loving wife. But when I told her of this fearless prediction, she responded with “Third? Are you kidding me?” Yeah, she’s a homer, but that’s okay.
No, the Cubs won’t compete with the Reds and the Cards. Not even close. But they have improved their pitching staff dramatically. Scott Baker may not sound like a really sexy name in the rotation, but he’s better than … well, pretty much anybody in the back three-fifths of that rotation. Add Edwin Jackson to the mix, and it’s just another consistent arm.
The Pirates will go through their customary fade, although I believe Clint Hurdle is the right man for that team. And the Brewers? While I like the Kyle Lohse signing, he’s not going to be the same guy he’s been. Yovani Gallardo is a poor man’s Wandy Rodriguez. (I’m including this for the yuk factor, of course, but he’s not a number one starter. Period.). Ryan Braun is a great offensive bat (except for about 50 games), but who surrounds him? Corey Hart? Rickie Weeks? That’s turrible. Milwaukee does not impress me. This is the time for the Cubs to make a statement in the NL Central, and it will certainly happen this season.
4. Three players will hit 50 home runs this season.
This may not be such a bold prediction, but I believe it’s going to happen. Those three players will be Miguel Cabrera, Matt Kemp and …. Giancarlo Stanton. Cabrera had a tremendous offensive season last year, and will continue to do so this year. Matt Kemp should be healthy, and no one can deny his Beast Mode power. And Stanton? Well, he’s really the only thing Miami has going for them, so why not? And speaking of the Marlins …
5. The Houston Astros will not be the worst team in baseball.
I’m not the only person to say that. I have seen it elsewhere, but since I’m on my lunch break at work, I am running out of time to waste looking for the quote. Houston is bad, but if they keep Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell for a little bit, they might actually have some help on the mound. And the Astros tend to be spoilers with a little fight in them. So they’ll be bad, but not the worst.
The Miami Marlins? They’re bad. They are full of retreads, AAAA players … and Giancarlo Stanton. I think the Astros will win at least 50 games. Miami won’t.
6. A certain Washington Nationals outfielder will suffer a season-ending injury.
Look, I don’t want to wish injury to anyone, but we fantasy baseball players know to expect injuries from certain people. That’s why I believe Jayson Werth will miss the last half of the season due to injury.
Oh … you thought I meant someone else? Silly reader.
7. Managers who will lose their job include, but are not limited to:
Ron Gardenhire — I know Minnesota loves Gardy, but at some point, isn’t it time to start fresh? Gardenhire is a fantastic manager who will be successful somewhere else.
Mike Redmond — If Jeffrey Loria will blow up the team after a bad season, you know he’ll fire Redmond if they tank. And they will. So consider Redmond to already be on a short least.
Ned Yost — I really hope the Royals have a great season. But they’ve been saying they’ll be great, and it hasn’t happened yet. No, I don’t believe it. He’s gone.
Don Mattingly — You heard it here first. In the offseason, Donnie Baseball asked the Dodgers to pick up his option for next season. They politely declined. Hopes and expectations are high, and anything less than the playoffs will not be good enough. And sadly, as good as the Dodgers look now, they will suffer from the same problems as the Blue Jays. Expect the Giants to clinch the NL West, and Mattingly to be out of the job. (While I’m at it, you can go ahead and mark third base coach Tim Wallach as the 2014 skipper.)
8. Andre Ethier will be traded at the deadline.
Andre Ethier has been discussed as a trade candidate all offseason, so this may not be an unreasonable thought. True to form, Ethier will have a great April, then forget how to hit lefties in May, and have a minor injury to a finger in June, rendering him completely useless.
Meanwhile, Cuban defector Yasiel Puig will go to Double-A Chattanooga (and for the record, the idea of a Cuban built like Bo Jackson makes me laugh hard). He’ll mash, then get sent to Triple-A Albuquerque (where I’ll get to see him play against the Iowa Cubs!). He’ll crush the ball there too, forcing the Dodgers to bring him up. By that point, L.A. will be six games back of San Francisco (and two back of Arizona!), and they’ll trade Ethier to a contender. Mr. Colletti, Ruben Amaro is holding on line three.
9. Mike Trout is going to have a terrible season.
If you’re anybody else (say … the Seattle Mariners), hitting .275 with 18 home runs and 72 RBIs is a pretty decent season. But if the player in question is Mike Trout, the expectation is that he will save the newest princess at a Disney theme park near you.
That there is Mike Trout’s sandwich hole!
That there is Mike Trout’s sandwich hole!
But those numbers are close to what you can expect from Trouty, and you can blame one person — Jared Fogle.
That’s right, Mike Trout’s Heywardian sophomore slump can be blamed on America’s favorite former fatty (apologies to Richard Simmons). It’s not Trout’s fault, of course. He’s just going to battle what I lovingly call The Subway Curse. Don’t believe me? Take a look at a few examples:
Michael Phelps — caught smoking pot at a party shortly after the 2008 Olympics.
Justin Tuck — has seen his sack numbers decrease.
Layla Ali — was fired from her job as a trainer on “The Biggest Loser”
Michael Strahan — took a job hosting a daytime talk show with Kelly Ripa
Ryan Howard — blew out his Achillies in the final game of the 2011 season
Robert Griffin III — blew out his knee in the final game of the 2012 NFL season
And since Trout is the newest face of Subway, you know this is going to happen again. I don’t think he’ll get hurt, but he’s not going to be the same guy he was last season. Not even close.
The Subway Curse. It’s a thing.
10. The Cincinnati Reds will win the 2013 World Series.
Why is nobody talking about the Cincinnati Reds? Well, because they are in the NL Central, and they’re not the Cardinals, so there’s that. But this is a strong Reds team that will no doubt win the division, and will easily beat the NL West pennant winner and any wild card candidate. All that really stands in the way of a World Series trip is Washington, and I think that could be a better matchup than whoever the American League sends.
I know they would be the underdog, but I really believe the Reds can win. Maybe Dusty Baker finally gets one. Maybe Joey Votto has an MVP season. Maybe Johnny Cueto doesn’t kick anybody in the face. I think it’s going to be a Reds-Angels series. Congratuations, Cincinnati. You deserve it.