I truly enjoyed Spencer’s article on Wednesday regarding the National League playoff picture. The National League playoff participants seem fairly definitive minus the inclusion of the Wild Card participants. The only flaw in Spencer’s article is that he never said who he believed would play in a one-game playoff for the fourth spot in the playoffs.
As a result, I decided to follow up on Spencer’s article with one of my own, in which I will predict the two Wild Card contenders for the National League. Everyone likes predictions, and with just under one month left in the season, now seems like a perfect opportunity to make an educated guess. My guess is based on a variety of statistics, independently used and not necessarily applied to each team equally. In other words, it’s an educated guess, but it’s still a guess.
For the purposes of the study, I will evaluate the chances of four teams: the San Francisco Giants, the Atlanta Braves, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Some of you faithful readers might find it inappropriate to include the Giants, considering they are the division leader and I am a biased Dodgers fan. But with the Giants and Dodgers meeting in a three-game set this weekend, the results of the matchups could swing the spread from 1.5 games to 7.5 games, and anywhere in between. A 1.5 game lead with 22 games is not insurmountable for the Dodgers, and therefore I feel it appropriate to include the Giants for the purpose of the discussion.
Also find that I am predicting the results of each team’s series for the rest of the season. No scores, just final results. This will help tabulate the final standings.
San Francisco Giants – 77-60
| 9/7-9/9 | Dodgers | 2-1 |
| 9/10-9/12 | @ Rockies | 3-0 |
| 9/14-9/16 | @ Diamondbacks | 1-2 |
| 9/17-9/20 | Rockies | 3-1 |
| 9/21-9/23 | Padres | 2-1 |
| 9/25-9/27 | D-Backs | 2-1 |
| 9/28-9/30 | @ Padres | 2-1 |
| 10/1-10/3 | @ Dodgers | 2-1 |
| Final Record | 17-8 |
If you are a Giants fan, you have to like the matchups above. After all, they don’t play a single game out of division, where San Fran has a season record of 28-19. Furthermore, aside from a six-game roadie to Denver and Phoenix, the Giants don’t even leave the state of California for the rest of the season. That sets up really well for the Giants.
But all is not beautiful by the Bay. While the Giants lead is 4.5 over the Dodgers, the Giants just came off of what might be their most successful month of the season in August. They had their highest win percentage for any month with an 18-11 record, and their runs scored was – are you ready for this – 43 runs higher than any previous month. Furthermore, their run differential was +31, whereas their highest differential in any previous month this season was +13.
I suppose run differential is not that important when your pitching staff features the likes of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong. All three have ERAs under 3.50. Even Tim Lincecum, who has been the ace for this staff until this season, has improved in his past few starts. The favorable matchups at home make this pitching staff even better.
The most important series for the Giants, in my opinion, is this upcoming weekend’s series against the Dodgers. If the Giants sweep, they have a nearly insurmountable 7.5-game lead. If the Dodgers sweep, it’s 1.5 games. So there is the possibility of a six-game swing by Sunday night. If the Giants come out of this with two wins out of three, they will without the question win the division.
I do believe the Giants take two out of three, and they will continue to win each series for the rest of the season. The one exception is the series at Arizona, where the Giants are actually 2-4 this season. They will finish the season at 94-68, good enough to clinch the National League West.
Atlanta Braves – 78-60
| 9/7-9/9 | @ Mets | 2-1 |
| 9/10-9/12 | @ Brewers | 2-1 |
| 9/14-9/16 | Nationals | 0-3 |
| 9/17-9/19 | @ Marlins | 3-0 |
| 9/21-9/23 | @ Phillies | 2-1 |
| 9/25-9/27 | Marlins | 2-1 |
| 9/28-9/30 | Mets | 2-1 |
| 10/1-10/3 | @ Pirates | 3-0 |
| Final Record | 16-8 |
Atlanta isn’t going to win the NL East. Oh, I’m sure it could happen, but it’s not likely, unless Washington absolutely tanks in the last month like that team from the NL East last year … oh, wait. Nevertheless, they are without question playing for a wild card spot. After a smoldering 18-8 record in July, the Bravos cooled to a 15-14 record in August.
They have plenty of road trips left in the season, including several series up and down the east coast in division. No matter – the Braves are 38-28 on the road. They have a favorable record against the remaining teams on their docket; at 36-25, their only losing record this season against any of the above is a disgusting 5-10 record against the aforementioned Nationals. Otherwise, they have to like their chances against the Brewers (3-0), Marlins (9-3) and the perplexing Phillies (10-5).
The Braves really don’t have an overwhelming amount of competition left this season. They won’t compete with the Nationals, who are 5-1 over the Braves at Turner Field. But that only amounts for three games, and while the Mets might pose a bit of a challenge, the Braves shouldn’t struggle against Miami and Philly. The Pirates will most likely be finished by the last weekend, so the Braves shouldn’t have trouble there either.
Even though Atlanta is 2-4 at New York, I think they take two there, and they likely will do the same in Milwaukee. I think Washington sweeps the series, but the Braves will come back to sweep the Marlins and two from Philly. Series victories the rest of the way make the Braves a wild card team with a season record of 94-68.
St. Louis Cardinals – 74-63
| 9/7-9/9 | Brewers | 2-1 |
| 9/10-9/12 | @ Padres | 2-1 |
| 9/13-9/16 | @ Dodgers | 2-2 |
| 9/18-9/20 | Astros | 3-0 |
| 9/21-9/23 | @ Cubs | 2-1 |
| 9/24-9/26 | @ Astros | 2-1 |
| 9/28-9/30 | Nationals | 1-2 |
| 10/1-10/3 | Reds | 1-2 |
| Final Record | 15-10 |
Like Atlanta, St. Louis probably won’t win the NL Central, so they are fighting for a wild card spot here too. Their upcoming schedule is a mixed bag. They shouldn’t have much trouble with the likes of the Brewers, Astros and Cubs. The matchups against the Dodgers, Nationals and Reds could be very interesting, however. That’s a four-game set in L.A. you see there, and that series could very well determine whether Brian Vaughan or I have a happier birthday this year (I on the 16th, the junior Brian on the 17th). The Cards then have a cakewalk run before they go home to face the Nattys and the Reds.
August was also a mixed bag for the Cards. The 16-13 record is nothing to sneeze at, but that came with a -3 run differential. As much as Brian and Spencer talk ad nauseum about how great the run differential for the Cardinals is, this is quite an intriguing statistic. I’m sure matchups against the Cubs and ‘Stros will rectify that.
The Cardinals have been great at home against Milwaukee this season, and that won’t change. They’ll take two there. They will leave San Diego with two wins, but the Dodgers series will end in a split, as the Dodgers have already swept them at home this season. From there, the Cardinals will handle the Cubs and Astros. Even at home, I believe St. Louis will struggle against Washington and Cincinnati, and will limp toward the end of the regular season at 2-4 to close out the final two series. In all, they end at 89-73.
Los Angeles Dodgers (73-65)
| 9/7-9/9 | @ Giants | 1-2 |
| 9/11-9/12 | @ Diamondbacks | 1-1 |
| 9/13-9/16 | Cardinals | 2-2 |
| 9/18-9/20 | @ Nationals | 2-1 |
| 9/21-9/23 | @ Reds | 2-1 |
| 9/25-9/27 | @ Padres | 1-2 |
| 9/28-9/30 | Padres | 2-1 |
| 10/1-10/3 | Giants | 1-2 |
| Final Record | 12-12 |
Hear me when I say this, because it rings truer here than for any other team in the discussion: The Dodgers single-handedly control their own destiny to the playoffs. Of the 24 remaining games for L.A., half of them – yes, half – are against the respective division leader, including the six against San Fran. Furthermore, they have the four-game home set against the Cards, with whom they are competing for a wild card spot.
Here is perhaps the most frightening statistic I have yet to uncover in my research: The Dodgers record against their remaining opponents is 29-27. They are barely .500 against their remaining foes. But to further prove that you can’t just look at statistics at face value, it bears mentioning that they are 6-10 against Arizona, with whom they only play the two games. Take those games out, and that record is now 23-17. Not so bad. If it seems like I’m looking for a silver lining, I totally am.
Okay … so here’s one more bright side: with the exception of the Padres and the D-Backs, none of the upcoming opponents have seen the Dodgers in their current incarnation. Since they have played the Reds, Nationals, and even the Giants, the Dodgers have added major players. While the numbers haven’t necessarily been there, the potential is there for the Dodgers to do some damage.
Sadly, I just don’t see it happening. The Giants will take two, and the Dodgers will split the series with Arizona and St. Louis. From there, I think the remaining games will be back and forth, and the Dodgers will close out the season losing two more to the Giants. They end the season at 85-77, out of the playoff picture. For the Dodgers, it’s too little, too late.
And there you have it. After all the analysis and discussion of the remaining games, the end result will stay the same. To close … congratulations, Cardinal fans. They will take the one-game showdown over the Braves.